(The Center Square) – Minnesota received a fiscal volatility score of 5.86 on a Pew Charitable Trusts ranking measuring two decades of state revenue fluctuations, representing the 22nd highest score among the 50 states.
The nonpartisan policy institute measured each state’s overall tax revenue fluctuations based on the standard deviation of its annual revenue changes, minus the impact of changes in tax policies. The lower the score, the less state revenues fluctuated from year to year over the 20-year time period, the study said.
Though the coronavirus pandemic caused sharp changes in tax collections from state to state, the states with the highest fiscal volatility were those that were most reliant on severance taxes on natural resources, reflecting the volatile nature of energy prices, according to Pew Charitable Trusts.
Nationwide, the average of the states’ volatility scores was 4.96, meaning that states’ total tax revenues fluctuated nearly 5 percentage points above or below overall growth trends, the study found.
Comprehensive personal income tax regimes and state sales taxes were found to be the revenue sources least subject to volatility, according to the analysis.
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States’ Tax Revenue Fluctuations Over 2 Decades
| Rank | State | Volatility Score, Fiscal Years 2000-2019 |
| 1 | Alaska | 36.93 |
| 2 | North Dakota | 16.41 |
| 3 | Wyoming | 13.33 |
| 4 | New Mexico | 10.17 |
| 5 | Arizona | 8.67 |
| 6 | California | 8.64 |
| 7 | Utah | 7.74 |
| 8 | Florida | 7.61 |
| 9 | Connecticut | 7.53 |
| 10 | Colorado | 7.47 |
| 11 | Oklahoma | 7.45 |
| 12 | Louisiana | 7.32 |
| 13 | Delaware | 6.95 |
| 14 | Massachusetts | 6.70 |
| 15 | Idaho | 6.43 |
| 16 | Montana | 6.33 |
| 17 | New York | 6.28 |
| 18 | Oregon | 6.13 |
| 19 | Texas | 6.13 |
| 20 | Illinois | 6.04 |
| 21 | New Jersey | 5.87 |
| 22 | Minnesota | 5.86 |
| 23 | Hawaii | 5.65 |
| 24 | Nevada | 5.64 |
| 25 | Virginia | 5.61 |
| 26 | Georgia | 5.48 |
| 27 | South Carolina | 5.38 |
| 28 | Kansas | 5.29 |
| 29 | New Hampshire | 5.19 |
| 30 | North Carolina | 4.79 |
| 31 | West Virginia | 4.67 |
| 32 | Alabama | 4.56 |
| 33 | Indiana | 4.52 |
| 34 | Rhode Island | 4.42 |
| 35 | Washington | 4.38 |
| 36 | Tennessee | 4.29 |
| 37 | Ohio | 4.22 |
| 38 | Maine | 4.15 |
| 39 | Nebraska | 4.05 |
| 40 | Iowa | 4.02 |
| 41 | Mississippi | 4.02 |
| 42 | Vermont | 4.00 |
| 43 | Wisconsin | 3.92 |
| 44 | Michigan | 3.83 |
| 45 | Pennsylvania | 3.78 |
| 46 | Missouri | 3.67 |
| 47 | Maryland | 3.36 |
| 48 | Arkansas | 2.90 |
| 49 | Kentucky | 2.89 |
| 50 | South Dakota | 2.68 |
| 50 States | 4.96 |
Source: Pew Charitable Trusts
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